Air Force hit the halfway point of its hockey season on a five-game slide after a mixed but potentially promising start.

Some of the more recent struggles (lack of goal scoring) are easy to see, but there also have been things to like (chances created, better defense).

We’ve seen what the Falcons are capable of with victories over RIT and a vastly improved Colorado College team, as well as a tie at AIC. Sustaining those performances is what has been problematic thus far.

AFAFlightPath.com’s midseason report will analyze several areas:

Overview

Player after player told me during the preseason that getting off to a strong start was imperative for a veteran Falcons  team. After 10 games they were 5-4-1 with a few chances to have pulled out a couple more wins (see: tie vs. Notre Dame, loss at Lindenwood).

Since then they’ve gone 1-6-1, all in Atlantic Hockey games. Given the league will only take the top eight teams for the playoffs this season and the Falcons are in ninth place, they have their work cut out for them to ensure they not only make the playoffs but play host to a quarterfinal series at least. The road, where Air Force will play 10 of its final 18 games has not been kind (1-5-1) thus far.

The good news? The Falcons are nothing if not a second-half team. Still, after multiple seasons of younger rosters and having 11 of 18 games at Cadet Arena it was expected a veteran group would be above .500.

Offense

The Falcons scored 36 goals through those first 10 games. Since? Only 14 goals in eight games. Compounding the goal drought has been a power play that had plenty of chances but has struggled lately despite possessing a number of weapons in both units.

Still, Air Force’s 2.8 goals per game has it solidly in the middle of Division I hockey (32nd out of 62 teams).

And, the Falcons have good scoring balance – nine players have seven or more points. That group includes defensemen Luke Rowe and forwards Will Gavin and Nate Horn with 13 points apiece. Another defenseman, Brandon Koch, has 12, and forward Willie Reim has 11. Gavin and Horn each have six goals, and Rowe and Reim each have five. Seven more players have three or more goals.

That balance presents a problem for opponents if they choose to load up against one particular line.

The bottom line: There is immense potential to correct the scoring drought, and to do it quickly. Several times I’ve watched games in person and thought, “If they just get one, they’re going to get three or four with how they’re playing.”

Defense

The most shocking statistic to me is that the Falcons have allowed an average of 3.8 goals per game, tied for fifth worst in Division I. However, they’ve been better of late. They allowed four or more goals in half of their first 10 games, including a snowman to Colorado College and seven to Lindenwood. Take away empty-net goals by opponents and it’s happened just twice in the past eight games.

There are three reasons for this:

First, Guy Blessing’s return to health has stabilized the goaltending. He’s allowed 14 goals in his past seven starts, a number Air Force can – and usually does – win with.

Second, the defense, which was decimated by injuries early in the season, has gotten a few members, notably Rowe, Andrew Kruse and Luke Robinson back healthy. Sam Brennan, who had four points in four games, remains out. If he can return this season that would provide another boost to the blue line.

Third, the Falcons are playing good team defense. The forwards back check hard and have done a better job keeping opponents outside. There still are the occasional odd-man attacks by foes but the number of those has decreased.

The bottom line: This area is trending in the right direction, and I expect that to continue.

Special teams

This has been a mixed bag.

The power play’s 19.5 percent success rate is 34th in Division I. Not bad, but 10 of the 15 PPGs came in the first 10 games. What’s also interesting is when the PP is going great, it’s really going great. Eight of the 15 man-advantage goals have come in three games – the 5-5 tie vs. Notre Dame, the 6-3 win vs. Colorado College and the 2-0 win vs. Bentley. And all of those games have been at home.

The Falcons have PPGs in five of their seven road games, so location hasn’t been an issue.

The penalty kill has steadily improved. Its 79.7 rate is tied for 35th in Division I. The one mystery with the kill is when it’s going well, it might not allow a goal for three games at a time (something that’s already happened twice). But, the Falcons also have allowed nine PPGs (out of a total of 13) in three games – three in a 7-6 loss at Lindenwood, four in the 8-0 loss at CC and two in a 5-1 loss vs. Bentley.

So there is a boom or bust aspect to the PK as well.

The bottom line: Strong special teams play is usually a hallmark of Air Force teams, especially the penalty kill. That should only continue to get better in the second half. The power play features two strong groups, and players like Gavin, Rowe and Reim are one-shot scorers, talented enough and strong enough to turn a game in an instant.

Miscellaneous

A few other patterns have developed.

It’s pretty clear that scoring first is massive boost to the Falcons. They’re 4-2-1 when they accomplish that but 2-8-1 when opponents find the net first.

The first games of two-game series have been a struggle. The Falcons are 2-5-1 in those, but 4-4 in the second game. (The opening weekend was against different opponents).

A positive sign is Air Force is outshooting foes by nearly four shots per game and winning more than 53 percent of their face-offs. These point to possession.

The bottom line: The first half was not what was hoped for, but the Falcons nearly always come out firing after Christmas break. The late December series against Canisius offers a chance to get back on track in AHA play before visits from AHA front-runners AIC and Niagara and trips to Army West Point in late January and No. 20 RIT to close the regular season.

There is no doubt in my mind they will finish in the top eight in AHA, but they have a lot of ground to make up to get into the top four. However, they were in the same position last season and reached the AHA championship game.

©First Line Editorial 2022