It says here Air Force could play hockey for a while in March.
How in the world is a long playoff run possible for a 10-18-6 team that has been depleted by injuries and suspensions?
It might be more possible than you realize, and here is why:
Atlantic Hockey success
The Falcons finished with a 10-12-6 record in league play, but they have wins over four of the five teams that finished ahead of them and they tied the fifth on the road.
They have won at RIT, which would be their quarterfinal series opponent if they defeat Mercyhurst in a best-of-3 series this weekend. They have won at Sacred Heart, defeated AIC at home and they’ve defeated Niagara twice. They also tied Army West Point in a game they had before a late Black Knights goal tied it.
In other words, they not only can defeat probable opponents in ensuing AHA playoff rounds, but they already have.
Offensive balance
The skeptic looks at Air Force’s offense and says, “No way.” After all, they’ve scored just 76 goals this season, fewer than all but 11 Division I teams.
However, they have shown they can win close games (5-7 record in one-goal games), and when faced with opportunities to gain AHA’s extra point in 3-on-3 overtime or a shootout, they’ve done it five of six times. They’re not fazed by close games.
And their offense presents a couple of problems for playoff opponents. The Falcons have 11 double-figure scorers and are so balanced that it’s hard to focus on just one line to shut down. On any given night, there are at least three that can score.
Factor in an active defense that includes the second- and third-leading scorers Zach Mirageas (21 points) and Brandon Koch (19 points, six goals), as well as double figure scorers Alex Mehnert and Jake Levin, and the Falcons can – and do – generate offense from many sources.
Yes, they need to score more, but if they can get just enough offense …
Air Force center Brady Tomlak. Photo courtesy of Air Force Athletics
Playoff style
When you think of playoff hockey, what comes to mind? If you’re like me, it conjures up images of low-scoring, tight-checking games that often are decided by goaltending.
A couple of categories the Falcons excel at are limiting opponents’ shot attempts (they’re ninth nationally at even strength and 16thon the power play) and staying out of the penalty box (their 319 penalty minutes are the fewest in AHA).
Another strength: face-offs. The Falcons control the puck so well because they start with it almost 52 percent of the time (16thnationally and second in AHA).
If I were to categorize Air Force’s regular playing style, I’d liken it to a playoff style. That can be an advantage at this time of the year.
And the last line of defense, sophomore Alex Schilling, has been pretty good since he was installed as starter in November. His goals-against average (2.49) is tied for fourth in the conference and he’s had two shutouts.
Growing up fast
Yes, the Falcons are heavily reliant on freshmen, and they’ve had no choice. However, by this point in the season do you really want to call players who’ve got 30-plus games under their belts college rookies?
Because players such as Koch, fellow defensemen Andrew Kruse, Luke Rowe and Dalton Weigel, as well as forwards Blake Bride, Luke Manning and Willie Reim have had to play so much, they’ve gained valuable experience.
The caution flags
- The concern about offense is real. Air Force has scored three or more goals only 14 times in 34 games. And they’ve only had back-to-back three-goal outputs three times (three-game runs in early November, December and the first game in January, and the past two games – a win and a loss at RIT). Can the Falcons sustain offense in a tighter-checking scenario? And can they keep holding opponents to 2 goals or fewer? The Falcons are just 2-14-3 when an opponent scores three goals.
- Depth is another concern. Most weeks the Falcons have one extra skater available, if that. An injury – especially to one of the three junior defensemen or a veteran forward would be devastating.
- Wear and tear is the third. It’s incumbent upon the Falcons to finish off Mercyhurst in two games. Having to play a third on Sunday, then travel back to Rochester, N.Y., for what could be a three-game series, and then potentially face two more of AHA’s elite on consecutive days in a 16-day stretch is an awful lot to ask of any team.
Keep in mind, however, the core group of juniors and seniors (11 are expected to play this weekend) and the veteran coaching staff have been through this drill before. And with all they’ve been through this season, I would not expect them to exit stage left quietly whenever that happens.
©First Line Editorial 2020
