It might be cliche´, but it truly has been feast or famine for the Air Force hockey team in the first half of the 2018-19 season.

With 16 regular-season games down and 18 more to play, beginning with a home series Dec. 29-30 against Bemidji State, the Falcons boast a 9-7 overall record and 9-5 mark in Atlantic Hockey, which they lead by three points.

Last season, it took Air Force 22 games to get its ninth win, something they accomplished in 15 games this season. So even with another run of injuries, the Falcons might be a bit ahead of where they were at this point last season.

Here is a deeper look at how they got here.

Highs and lows of the first half

On the surface, the Falcons’ 36 goals for and 42 goals against are a bit surprising for a team slightly above .500. Dig deeper and you discover just how good they are when they win and how much they struggle when they don’t.

In nine wins, Air Force has outscored foes 33-12, a total that includes an astounding six empty-net goals. Take those away and the Falcons still win by an average of nearly 3-1.

The disturbing statistic is the Falcons have been largely dominated when they lose, being outscored 30-3 in those seven games, which include four shutouts – two of those by 5-0 (at AIC and vs. Niagara). They have lost by three or more goals five times already. For context, that only happened four times all of last season.

In the seven losses they’ve been shut out four times, which hasn’t happened in a season in more than 15 years, and scored one goal in the other three.

“I would hope that we learned some lessons (in the first half),” coach Frank Serratore said after Saturday’s 4-1 loss to Mercyhurst. “When we’re ready to play, when we’re proactive, we’re pretty good. When you’re not and you let the other team dictate things, you’re going to get knocked on your ass. Parity is such that a lot of nights it’s going to come down to which 20 are the hungrier 20 (players).”

That hunger was clearly on display when they won their first nine games.

Evan Feno celebrates one of his eight goals thus far this season. Photo courtesy of Russ Backer and Air Force Athletics

Falcons offense

If you project Air Force’s current statistics over the season, it’s possible it will have just one scorer exceed 20 points, senior center Evan Feno, who has 12 points and eight goals. He, freshman Kieran Durgan (6 goals) and fellow senior center Kyle Haak (5) are the only Falcons on pace to crack double digits in goals. Senior Evan Giesler (4) is another strong bet to do so given that’s accomplished it the past two seasons.

The low output (2.3 goals per game) is shocking given the talent the Falcons have up front, but four shutouts are a factor in that.

The power play is a big component of Air Force’s offense right now, responsible for 13 of its 36 goals. Add in the empty-netters, and fewer than half of the Falcons’ goals have been scored at even strength. That also is a concern.

There are reasons to expect the offense could pick up, however. The play of junior wing Trevor Stone and sophomore wing Walker Sommer in particular has been noticeable, and their speed, along with that of sophomores Marshall Bowery and Shawn Knowlton, gives Air Force a huge edge in retrieving pucks in opponents’ zones. The key is converting those retrievals into prime scoring chances. Too often they get the puck and can’t get quality looks.

The blue line also is contributing offense, led by senior Matt Koch (9 assists) and sophomores Jake Levin (5 points), Alex Mehnert (6) and Zack Mirageas (5).

Falcons defense

Air Force is allowing just 2.6 goals per game, but that’s a result of two factors.

When the Falcons are committed to team defense, they regularly hold opponents to fewer than 20 shots and the goalies merely have to be solid. But a few of their wins have required senior Billy Christopoulos (7-5, .912 save percentage and 2.31 goals-against average) to stand on his head.

That’s due in part to the inordinate amount of breakaways the Falcons give up, frequently because of errant passes or shot blocks near the opposing blue line.

Much more often than not Christopoulos has been up to the task, and he should be even better in the second half after surgery to clear an intestinal blockage.

The Falcons also can move forward knowing they have at least one serviceable backup in sophomore Zach LaRocque (2-2, 3.10, .857), who played fairly well in Christopoulos’ absence.

In addition to the sophomore trio of defensemen, the Falcons have played some combination of three freshmen at times. It stands to reason the group, which is shepherded by Koch and fellow senior Dan Bailey, will continue to get more cohesive as the season marches on.

Falcons special teams

Of the areas I’m highlighting, this might be the most encouraging.

Air Force’s penalty kill has a run of 30 and counting going and is at almost 90 percent (third in Division I). It’s power play, despite struggling last Saturday vs. Mercyhurst, is at nearly 20 percent. Overall, both are strengths.

The Falcons also have been solid in the face-off circle, winning more than 51 percent, with junior Brady Tomlak and Haak being big guns there. The return to health of junior Erich Jaeger and Feno also has helped, and Durgan has demonstrated he can hold his own at center as well.

Reasons for concern

• A general lack of offense, especially at even strength. Getting senior wing Matt Serratore back from injury should help.
• Wild swings in consistency. The Falcons usually play better as the season goes along, but difference between their play in wins and losses thus far has been an eye opener.
• Maturing defense. It’s gotten better in three months, but the group still has a ways to go.

Reasons for optimism

• Emerging players. Sommer, Stone and junior Pierce Pluemer have been demonstrably better this season. The sophomore D have taken steps and Mirageas is clearly in the go-to pair with Koch. If Durgan isn’t the best freshman in the conference, he’s got to be awfully close.
• Strong special teams.
• Billy the Greek. Christopoulos was sensational before the break, just as he was in the second half last season. He’s also likelier to be healthier than he was in the first half.
• Senior leadership. Across the board, the Falcons have an excellent group, and most nights they’re leading the charge on the ice as well as off. College hockey is a senior-driven game, and this group gives Air Force a chance for another NCAA run.

Second-half forecast

Mostly sunny.

The schedule, with five home series, three road ones and one tournament, favors the Falcons. They get Army West Point, Robert Morris and Canisius at home, and I’d bet all three make runs up the AHC standings. Road series at Sacred Heart and Mercyhurst won’t be picnics, but having already swept at Army and RIT in their barns is huge. The AIC debacle is the one tie-breaker concern.

Assuming they continue their trend of second-half improvement, pencil the Falcons in for another trip to the AHC final four. Beyond that, they’d have to fix their consistency issues and generate more offense, particularly at even strength, in order to be an NCAA factor for the third season in a row.

©First Line Editorial 2017-18