Air Force (15-13-4, 10-11-3 AHC) vs. Canisius (15-13-2, 15-9-0 AHC)
Friday at 7:05 p.m. and Saturday at 5:05 p.m. at Cadet Ice Arena
TV / radio: AtlanticHockey.tv (subscription) / AM 1300 and GoAirForceFalcons.com
Series: Air Force leads 18-13-9, and the teams split two games in late October in Buffalo.
Overview
Unless there is an incredible sequence of events, first-place Canisius is probably looking at a first-round bye in the AHC playoffs. Air Force, on the other hand, has some work to do to achieve that. Any scenario is possible for the seventh-place Falcons – a weekend off, hosting a series or hitting the road to start the playoffs. In addition to the Golden Griffins, the Falcons have to travel to fourth-place Robert Morris next weekend. Air Force had an uneven – and unusual – three games in five days in the Northeast. It rallied in the second game against Bentley, sparked by a previously dormant power play. It then rallied to tie Sacred Heart before falling in OT on Tuesday. … Canisius is just 4-7-1 in the new year, but 4-3 in AHC play. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 7-3-1 overall and in AHC in that span.
Air Force update
How do the Falcons win? They score 3 or more goals (14-1-2 when that happens), they score first (11-2-2) and they lead after two (14-0-1). The only time they’ve won when trailing after two periods was last Saturday at Bentley. It also helps if they score a power-play goal as they’re 10-1 when that happens. … The steady play of junior goaltender Billy Christopoulos (.915 save percentage. 2.28 GAA) keeps the Falcons in just about every game, and they do a lot of things right – their 52.8 percent rate on face-offs is ninth in the country and their 84.3 percent success rate on the penalty kill is 10th. Both figures are second in AHC. They allow the fewest shots on goal (27) and the fewest goals per game (2.44) in the league, and those figures are 12th and 13th, respectively, in D-I hockey. Simply stated, at its core this has been a defensive team this season. Even with injuries knocking upperclassmen Dylan Abood, Phil Boje and Matt Koch out of the lineup at times, the play of the D corps has improved as the season has gone one. A trio of freshmen – Jake Levin, Alex Mehnert and Zack Mirageas has a lot to do with that, but veterans Dan Bailey, Jonathan Kopacka, Kyle Mackey and Joe Tyran also had something to say about that. … Forwards Erik Baskin (19 points), Evan Giesler (19) and Matt Serratore (16) are leading the offense, and Baskin (12) and Serratore (11) are tops in goals. Also notable is freshman Marshall Bowery has scored five goals in the past eight games. Koch has 13 points and Boje 12 from the blue line. … With a 6-7-1 home mark, the Falcons are in jeopardy of having their first losing season at home in 12 seasons.
Canisius update
The Golden Griffins bring in one of AHC’s top offenses, thanks in part to a very good power play. Canisius connects 21.7 percent of the time when a man up, a rate that is second in the conference and 15th nationally. Overall, Canisius scores 3.13 goals per game (14th), more than a half a goal per game more than the Falcons but it also allows almost as many (2.97). … A trio of forwards – junior Dylan McLaughlin, senior Ryan Schmelzer and sophomore Nick Hutchison score more than 42 percent of the goals for Canisius. They have 40 of the team’s 94, including 14 by McLaughlin, whose 39 points and 25 assists lead AHC. Schmelzer has 29 points, and he and Hutchison have 13 goals apiece. All three have four or more on the power play, as does sophomore forward Matt Hoover (17 points). Junior defensemen Jimmy Mazza (17 points) and Cameron Heath (16) also are scoring threats, and Mazza had the game-winner in the second game against the Falcons in October. … Sophomore Daniel Urbani has emerged as the starting goaltender and brings numbers of 13-11-1, .911 and 2.89.
How it could go down
This is a strength vs. strength matchup – with Air Force’s stingy defense and goaltending facing a powerful offense. Despite the seven-point gap in the AHC standings, the teams are tied with Mercyhurst for the most overall wins by an AHC team (15). If the Falcons can generate more than two goals per game, three or four points aren’t out of the question, but they can’t afford to tread water the next two weekends. The earlier meetings at Canisius were close with the Falcons winning 3-1 win and losing 3-2.
Take a closer look at the teams’ first two meetings of the season:
Falcons win opener at Canisius
Third-period goal gives Canisius a series split
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