Scouting No. 15 Air Force vs. No. 8 Western Michigan

NCAA East Regional at Providence, R.I.

No. 15 Air Force (26-9-5) vs. No. 8 Western Michigan (22-12-5)

When: Friday, 5:35 p.m. MDT

TV/radio: ESPN3, WatchESPN/1300 AM and goairforcefalcons.com

Other semifinal: Harvard vs. Providence, 2 p.m. MDT

Overview: The Falcons, who have their highest ranking since the 2008-09 season, are back in the tournament for the first time since 2012 and sixth time overall. Air Force, which beat Army West Point and Robert Morris by a combined 3-1 last weekend to take the Atlantic Hockey championship, is 1-5 overall in the NCAAs. Its 26 wins this season are two shy of a school record. The Broncos are also having one of their best seasons and finished third in the NCHC. They’ve had weekends when they’ve looked unstoppable (sweeping North Dakota, splitting with then No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth), and others when they’ve been inconsistent, splitting with Colorado College and going three games in the NCHC quarterfinals against Omaha. The Falcons and Broncos played twice in Kalamazoo, Mich., in mid-November, with AFA rallying for a 5-5 tie on Friday and WMU winning on Saturday, 4-1.

How Air Force wins: The Falcons boast balanced scoring – 14 skaters have 12 points or

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Kyle Haak

more, topped by Jordan Himley (20 goals, 33 points), Kyle Haak (30 points), Evan Giesler (29 points) and defenseman Phil Boje (28 points). Boje, Matt Koch and Dan Bailey (16 points apiece) supply much of the offense from the back end. … Air Force also has received stellar goaltending from sophomore Shane Starrett, who has allowed zero or one goal in 13 of his past 22 appearances. He has career bests in wins (25), GAA (1.90) and save percentage (.928). … The Falcons have D-I hockey’s best penalty kill (89.9 percent), and their power play also is decent (17.7 percent), though it is just 2-for-22 in the past five games and 0-for-14 in the playoffs.

How Western Michigan wins: The Broncos have big, skilled forwards and an emerging freshman goaltender in Ben Blacker (17-7-2, 2.45 and .918). Much of their damage is done by physical play opening lanes for the top six forwards to fire away. Their top five point scorers each has 12 or more goals, led by sophomore Matheson Iacopelli with 20 goals and 34 points. Griffen Molino has 31 points (14 goals), senior captain Sheldon Dries has 15 goals and is one of three players with 29 points, along with freshman Wade Allison and sophomore Colt Conrad. Sophomore Corey Shueneman (22 points) and senior Taylor Fleming (19 points) are the big scoring threats from the blue line. … The Broncos connect on nearly 21 percent of their power plays but the penalty kill is effective only 80 percent of the time.

How it could play out: The Falcons will have their hands full with Western Michigan’s size and skill up front. Getting the puck out of their zone quickly will be of paramount importance for the Falcons, who then must try to re-establish their cycle game and generate more offense than they have of late. Blacker is a good goalie but Starrett has played as well as any goalie in America of late. The Falcons’ speed and depth also could allow them to exploit an average WMU defense. Still, it’s incumbent upon Air Force to get an early goal or two. If it chases the game it could be a long night. Forget the rankings, this is a pretty even matchup. If Air Force can score three goals it has an excellent chance to win with the way Starrett is going right now.