Scouting AHC semifinal – No. 17 Air Force vs. Army West Point

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Goalie Shane Starrett and the Falcons were 3-1 during the regular season vs. Army this season. Photo courtesy of Paat Kelly, Air Force Athletics.

Atlantic Hockey semifinal – No. 17 Air Force (24-9-5) vs. Army West Point (18-13-5)

Friday: 6 p.m. (1300 AM, goairforcefalcons.com)

Season series: Air Force was 3-1, and 1-1 on the road

NCAA implications: Army has to win the AHC tournament and garner its automatic bid to make the NCAA Tournament. Air Force is on the bubble (15th in the latest PairWise Rankings) so it needs to at least win this game and probably win the AHC tournament to get in.

Overview: As soon as I learned this was the Falcons’ matchup I could hear coach Frank Serratore‘s voice saying, “Buckle those chinstraps tight boys, this will be a man’s game.” Army is a big, physical team that gets outstanding goaltending from Parker Gahagen. The Falcons have more offensive balance, get contributions from their blue line, have excellent special teams have an outstanding goaltender of their own in Shane Starrett. Both goalies are among 10 finalists for the Mike Richter Award. Factor in the service academy rivalry, and this should be a terrific game.

Air Force update: The Falcons are 10-1-1 in their past 12, a run that began with a sweep of Army at Cadet ice Arena. The Falcons’ net goals advantage in the series is just three despite their winning three of four. Defenseman Phil Boje and Evan Giesler each had four points vs. Army this season, while Dan Bailey, Erik Baskin and Tyler Ledford each had two goals. Starrett was outstanding in the four meetings, posting a 1.77 GAA and a .924 save percentage. The AFA penalty kill, which is No. 1 in the nation, was 15-for-15 against Army. … Overall, Starrett is 23-5-4 with a 1.98 GAA (fifth in D-I)  and a .924 save percentage. Six players (led by Jordan Himley with 19 goals and 31 points, Kyle Haak with 30 points and Giesler and Boje with 28 points apiece) have 20 or more points and another six have 15 or more. The Falcons get offense from everywhere. …The Falcons’ offense is scoring 3.24 goals per game, the same as defending NCAA champion North Dakota and tied for 14th in D-I. They’re eighth defensively, allowing just 2.24 goals per game.

Army update: The Black Knights defeated Mercyhurst in a three-game, first-round AHC series last weekend. They are 6-3-2 since playing Air Force in late January, and they have played five OT games during that 11-game stretch. … They got three points from Connor Andrle and two goals from Blake Box against the Falcons this season. Gahagen had a 2.28 GAA and .917 save percentage vs. AFA. Army kept AFA’s power play in check, killing off all 11 chances. … Gahagen’s overall .933 save percentage is second in the nation. Andrle’s 28 points lead the team, while Zach Evancho has 23. Freshman Brendan Soucie‘s 15 goals are a team high. Army’s offense scores 2.78 goals per game (36th), but that works when you have the fourth-best defense (2.14 gpg).

How it could play out: Goals should be at a premium, but both teams have goaltenders capable of stealing a game. The Falcons’ offensive balance and contributions from the blue line gives them a slight edge in what should be a tight game.