Air Force (6-3-1, 4-2 AHC) at No. 18 Western Michigan (6-3-1, 3-3-0 NCHC)
When: Friday at 5 p.m. (ASN, ALT2, AM 1300/GoAirForceFalcons.com); Saturday at 6 p.m. (AM 1300/GoAirForceFalcons.com)
Overview: This is the teams’ first meeting since 1988, when Air Force defeated then No. 10 Western Michigan, 5-2, at AFA. This season, the Falcons have won three in a row after a 1-3-1 stretch. The Broncos’ only losses have been to NCHC powers Denver (twice) and Minnesota-Duluth. Air Force will welcome back junior defenseman Jonathan Kopacka and sophomore center Kyle Haak, who served one-game, AHC-imposed suspensions Saturday after a post-whistle skirmish against RIT on Friday. Two RIT players also were suspended. The Falcons would be further bolstered if senior defenseman Johnny Hrabovsky and junior winger Ben Kucera (lower-body injuries) can return. One big plot line will be how Air Force’s strong penalty kill fares against Western’s excellent power play, which connects an average of twice per game.
Sophomore defenseman Dan Bailey has two goals in his past three games for Air Force. Photo courtesy of Air Force Athletics
Offense
Air Force is starting to find a bit of a groove offensively. Two contributors to that have been the defense shooting more aggressively from the points and the Falcons’ two-man forecheck gaining possession of the puck deep in the opposing zone then finding the third forward in the slot. Those were the difference vs. RIT last weekend. The Falcons’ 3 goals per game average is tied for 28th in Division I. WMU was scoring almost five goals per game at one point earlier this season, and its average of 3.7 is still 10th in D-I. …
WMU sophomore Matheson Iacopelli is posting Cy Young numbers – he’s 10-2 (goals-assists). The Chicago Blackhawks prospect (6-foot-3, 206 pounds) had just one goal all last season. The Broncos also get scoring up front from three-time captain Sheldon Dries (eight points), sophomore Griffen Molino (eight points), junior Aidan Muir (seven) and freshman Wade Allison, whose four goals are second to Iacopelli and at 6-2, 205 pounds is another big body. Molino was the team’s leading scorer as a freshman. The Broncos also get quite a bit of offense from the blue line. Senior Taylor Fleming (nine assists) runs the show on an effective PP, and the massive Scott Moldenhauer (6-4, 225) had eight points, including two goals. …
Sophomore forward Matt Serratore leads Air Force with 10 points and seven assists. Haak, another sophomore, has eight points after his three-assist game last Friday, and junior linemate Jordan Himley, on the strength of three goals in two games vs. RIT, has a team-high four goals among his six points. The blue line contributed three of four goals in Saturday’s win vs. RIT, with Dan Bailey scoring his second in three games, Kyle Mackey getting his first of the season and Matt Koch getting the first of his NCAA career. Junior Phil Boje leads the D core with eight points, a plus-7 and 15 blocked shots.
Defense
WMU allows about a half goal per game less than AFA (2.7 to 3.1). One big reason for the Broncos’ improvement this season has been better goaltending in the form for sophomore Trevor Gorsuch, who has a 4-3-1 record with a 2.65 goals-against average and .907 save percentage. …
Sophomore Shane Starrett has started nine of 10 games for the Falcons and has a 6-2-1 record with a 2.56 goals-against average and a .919 save percentage (T16th). He has played his best of late when the Falcons have needed big saves in the closing minutes of games. The Falcons continue to be strong on the dot, winning 55.3 percent of their face-offs (sixth best in Division I). Junior Tyler Ledford has 91 wins.
Special teams
Something has to give because Western Michigan has one of the nation’s top power plays, scoring 25 percent of the time (sixth in D-I). And the Broncos’ 19 power-play goals are tops in Division I. Twice against Denver they scored when a forward snuck to the weak side dot and blasted a one-timer into the net. …
Air Force, meanwhile, kills off 89.1 percent of foes’ PPs (10th) and has allowed just five PPGs all season. It will have to be very disciplined and remain aware of the weak side. If the Falcons score a power-play goal there is an excellent chance they’ll gain at least a point; they’re 3-1-1 when it happens. But they’ve only scored seven times all season with the man advantage (including twice Saturday) and sit at 12.7 percent efficiency (46th of 60 teams). WMU’s PK is in the top half of D-I at 84.3 percent (27th).
Outlook: This is not going to be an easy trip for the Falcons. Western Michigan is much bigger, very physical and features more skill at forward than it has had in a while. And, it has improved goaltending. None of its losses have been by more than two goals, and each of those were one-goal games until the end. Still, I like Air Force’s chances if it can do three things: First, this would be a great weekend for Starrett to stand on his head and steal a game, something he is more than capable of. Second, the Falcons have to stay out of the penalty box. Third, Air Force has to get a lead early, as it did last weekend against RIT, because playing catch-up at Kalamazoo will be tough.
@AFAFlightPath will have periodic updates during the game game and we’ll recap the outcome later tonight
